A winter storm will move into Virginia on Tuesday bringing all types of winter weather and impacts to the area. Most of the area has a good chance of seeing at least a few inches of snow by Tuesday evening.
Snow will start to spread across central Virginia between 8 to 10 a.m on Tuesday, Feb. 11. With temperatures starting below freezing Tuesday morning, we all start off with snow. Snow showers continue for a good portion of the day as we will have cold air at the surface and cold air aloft.
The tricky part of the forecast is timing out when we will see the transition from snow to a wintry mix and then rain. Weather models are still not in full agreement on when the transition will happen, so things are more likely than not to change with this forecast. With that being said, here is the forecast as of Sunday afternoon, but please stay updated with the forecast over the next 24 hours.
Highest accumulations will be north of Ashland where we will likely see snow for the duration of the event. This area is highlighted by the white contour where 5-8″ is expected and locally higher amounts are possible. This includes Culpeper, Orange, Spotsylvania, Caroline, King George and Louisa County.
Most of the Northern Neck is also included in this region including Westmoreland, Richmond County and portions of Northumberland County. Portions of Fluvanna, Goochland, northern Hanover, King William, King and Queen and Essex County have the risk of these higher amounts also.
Our next region is highlighted in blue where 2-5″ of snow could accumulate before we see the transition to a wintry mix Tuesday evening. This includes most of Amelia, Buckingham, Cumberland, Powhatan, Metro Richmond, Henrico, northern Chesterfield, New Kent and eastern counties in the middle peninsula and Northern Neck.
Less accumulations are expected in the pink contour due to snow transitioning to a wintry mix and then rain earlier. Before we make that transition, a dusting to 3″ is expected and includes the areas of Mecklenburg, Lunenburg, Nottoway, Dinwiddie.
The far southeastern part of the state will get the lowest accumulations as we will likely see the transition from snow to rain by the afternoon hours. A dusting to a few inches is expected for areas along the Virginia/North Carolina border, including Emporia and points east towards Virginia Beach.
Once the warmer air moves north and we see the transition line push north, we will have freezing rain and sleet mixing in. When this starts to happen, snow will turn more slushy and accumulations will come to an abrupt end.
Showers continue overnight and into Wednesday morning for most of the area with the highest chance of a wintry mix to areas north of I-64.
Again, things will likely change on this forecast as the exact track of the storm is still not locked in. If the center of the track shifts by just 20 or so miles, accumulations will change so please stay weather aware in the coming days.
By Jacqueline Waters, Tyler Hall – Wric